FUTURE THOUGHTS – We are on the metaverse 'slope of enlightenment'
Dudley Nevill-Spencer
The first article in our November ‘XR Insider’ newsletter is about the recently released Meta/Ray-ban smart glasses – read it here. This got me thinking about an article I did two years ago when Mark Zuckerberg changed the name of his company to Meta and very publicly committed to the metaverse. It was simultaneously the best and worst of things that had ever happened to the XR/AR/avatar industry.
On one side, it brought the technology and the direction of travel for technology of the future into the minds of the public in a way no one else could have done. On the other side, when he made that announcement and released his vision for avatars, the metaverse and the access hardware, they were all pretty much unfinished products that did the industry little justice, and when they were investigated, people were disappointed. This was the peak of the hype cycle.
Meta’s Horizon Worlds platform had so many issues and it just wasn’t that compelling – the new headset wasn’t mixed reality (I believe that mixed reality will be the dominant format – VR is a small but fun sideshow). His avatars were literally the worst avatars in any platform in the world – plastic, low poly, disembodied – and his Ray-Ban smart glasses had no AI or AR integration.
At each point in his eco-system there were others creating far far better products. When the hype started I pointed out that, to me, this was the peak of the hype curve and that we would soon plunge into the ‘trough of disillusionment’ as people used his products and realised how many of them were just not good enough yet – and certainly not good enough to change daily hardware habits and cultural opinions on being represented by, and integrating with avatars.
He also misinformed people, making every journalist in the world equate VR as ‘the metaverse’ and VR hardware as the dominant hardware of the future. Neither of these things were or will ever be true. Mixed reality – where you see the real world with digital overlays – is far more compelling, useful and comfortable to use. Humans just don’t like having their peripheral vision shut down for extended periods of time in VR.
What this all added up to was that my predictions that AR eyewear would replace the mobile phone, and that XR worlds (the metaverse) would replace web2, both came under a lot of criticism as people presumed that VR was the metaverse (it’s not , it’s just a way of accessing it) and that VR eyewear was the access hardware of the future (it won’t be, that will be MR/AR eyewear).
In a way, this did the innovation side of VIA quite a bit of harm, and ‘metaverse’ became a dirty word. But, there was a side of me that was thrilled, and excited. As we descended to the bottom of the trough of disillusionment, it meant that we were that much closer to starting up the ‘slope of enlightenment’. By raising the awareness of his technologies Zuckerberg would also be giving fuel and focus to companies doing really good work in these areas of innovation, and the benefits of these innovations would start to crystalise in the minds of the enterprises and consumers.
I am very happy that we are now well and truly in the ‘slope of enlightenment’ phase! The recent awareness of generative AI and chat GPT3 etc (technologies which have been around for years, but didn’t have the focus of the public’s attention) has also enabled a new look at XR and avatars, and this second look has occurred as second generation products in these areas have been coming out and are really compelling.
In the next few years we will move into the ‘plateau of productivity’ phase, where XR/avatar and conversational AI are used daily by everyone. In fact, Zuckerberg’s second and third generation technologies really are very good, and they are starting to deliver on the promise he made two years ago.
Below are some links to his new products. His hardware, Metaquest 3, now has mixed reality, yay! Meta now have AI avatar assistants that are starting to become really useful, and his Meta/Ray-ban smart glasses are very good and now have an AI assistant.
We are moving ever closer to a time when we all interact with, talk to and are represented by avatars. They will become our assistants, entertainment, counsellors even, and we will move between 3D worlds with interoperability. A time where smart glasses will replace the phone and we will use them daily to interact with the web, to socialise, work and play.
As always, I like to end with some prosaic advice for brands. I would say three things. 1. Start working with 3D worlds now – understand their limitations, what people like to engage with in your category, how hard some things are, how easy others are. 2. Get into conversational Ai and understand its limitations and advantages, and 3. Investigate avatars as company representatives in 3D worlds or your own 3D company garden.
Bring on the plateau of productivity!
Supporting links: – How Meta is entering the plateau of productivity
Ultra-real avatars tech example
Metaquest 3 – headset with mixed reality (at last)
Meta/Ray-Ban smart glasses with AI agent
XREAL AR smart glasses (what Meta’s will become when they integrate AR)
NB: I will do a complete overview of the Meta/Ray-Ban smart glasses soon.